Apple’s long-rumored foldable iPhone is expected to launch next year with a significantly cheaper hinge than industry analysts anticipated. According to Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst with strong connections to Apple’s supply chain, the hinge will cost $70-$80 at mass production, roughly 40% below the market’s previous expectation of $100-$120 or higher.
The cost reduction stems primarily from assembly design optimization led by Foxconn rather than cheaper upstream components, according to Kuo’s industry survey. This means Apple can either improve profit margins on each iPhone Fold sold or less likely given Apple’s pricing strategy pass some savings to consumers.
Manufacturing Split: Foxconn Takes the Lead
A joint venture between Foxconn (Hon Hai) and Shin Zu Shing (SZS) will manufacture approximately 65% of the hinges Apple needs, with Amphenol supplying the remaining 35%. Foxconn holds a slightly larger stake in the joint venture and directs its strategic development.
The structure is notable because it positions Foxconn to capture profits at both the component level (through the hinge JV) and the device assembly level, reinforcing the company’s vertical integration advantages. By controlling hinge production alongside iPhone assembly, Foxconn secures a larger portion of the total value chain.
Kuo suggests the company might be prioritizing higher-ROI opportunities in AI infrastructure over ramping foldable phone component production a strategic choice that mirrors broader industry trends as AI hardware demand accelerates.
Future Competition: Luxshare Could Enter After 2027
Luxshare-ICT may join Apple’s hinge supply chain sometime after 2027, according to Kuo. This potential addition carries two implications: hinge costs likely have further room to decline as competition increases, and the hinge is becoming “a new battleground for system assemblers.”
The technical angle that matters: foldable phone hinges represent complex mechanical engineering challenges. They must withstand hundreds of thousands of fold cycles, maintain precise screen alignment, hide internal mechanisms, and fit within millimeter-scale thickness constraints. The fact that multiple major manufacturers are competing for this business indicates the technology has matured enough for cost-competitive mass production.
What This Means for the iPhone Fold
Lower hinge costs improve Apple’s economics on what will almost certainly be its most expensive iPhone. Current foldable smartphones from Samsung and others typically cost $1,800-$2,000. Apple’s entry into the category will likely command premium pricing, but reducing component costs helps maintain Apple’s industry-leading profit margins even at these elevated price points.
The cost reduction also de-risks the product category. If the foldable iPhone underperforms sales expectations, lower component costs minimize losses. If it succeeds, Apple captures higher margins than competitors who pay more for similar hinge technology.
Foldables Remain Niche But Growing
Foldable smartphones have existed for several years but remain a small market segment. Samsung dominates with its Galaxy Z Fold and Flip series, while Chinese manufacturers like Huawei, Xiaomi, and Oppo offer competing devices primarily for Asian markets.
Samsung recently launched its China Specific foldable phone W26 with satellite connectivity and luxury retail package
Apple’s entry could legitimize the category for mainstream consumers in the same way the original iPhone validated touchscreen smartphones.
However, foldables still face durability concerns, software optimization challenges, and significantly higher prices than traditional smartphones. Whether Apple can solve these issues well enough to drive mass adoption remains uncertain.
The hinge cost decline suggests Apple and its suppliers have made progress on manufacturability and reliability prerequisites for the company to enter any new product category at scale.
The foldable iPhone is expected to launch in 2026, though Apple has not officially confirmed the product’s existence. Lower hinge costs reduce execution risk and improve unit economics, but whether consumers will embrace foldable iPhones at premium prices remains the larger question.
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